Successful delivery of multi-year programs often hinges on more than just timelines and budgets. Many initiatives fail because of program delivery risks that aren’t visible at the start. These risks include shifting strategies, evolving stakeholder demands, and unmanaged interdependencies.
McKinsey reports that only 35% of large IT programs finish on time, within budget, and deliver expected benefits (Bloch, Blumberg & Laartz, 2012). These failures often result from risks that were overlooked early or not managed as the program evolved.
The PPMO plays a critical role in preventing delivery drift. It must enable oversight while staying close enough to execution to flag risks that change over time.
Spot Hidden Risks Early
Many program risks are not technical—they’re organizational. Teams often rely on outdated assumptions about funding, leadership, or business needs. As Gartner highlights, unclear ownership and weak governance are among the top reasons large programs fail (Gartner, 2023).
To avoid this, the PPMO should challenge early assumptions and run structured “horizon scans” at key milestones. These scans help detect signals like leadership turnover or priority shifts—warning signs of future delivery problems.
Reassess Risk Tolerance Midway
Risk appetite isn’t fixed. What’s acceptable at launch may become intolerable after market or leadership changes. Yet few organizations update risk assumptions during delivery.
Scenario-based planning can help. It prepares teams with multiple execution paths and regularly tests those paths under current conditions. PMI found that programs using scenario planning have 28% higher success rates for strategic initiatives (PMI, 2021).
This approach isn’t just contingency planning—it builds flexibility and responsiveness into delivery.
Introduce Strategic Friction
The PPMO must do more than support—it must challenge. Strategic friction means asking tough questions about plans, timelines, and risks. This reduces surprises later.
Examples include independent delivery reviews, red-team sessions, or external expert critiques. These practices keep program managers alert to blind spots without slowing progress.
The most effective PPMOs earn trust not just for tools and templates—but for smart, timely interventions.
Conclusion
Managing program delivery risks requires more than a risk log. It needs early detection, scenario thinking, and a culture of healthy challenge. PPMOs that spot delivery drift before it spreads—and respond with strategic support—are the ones that keep complex programs on track. The goal isn’t to eliminate risk. It’s to shape it before it shapes the outcome.
Reference
Delivering Large-Scale IT Projects On Time, On Budget, and On Value | Michael Bloch, Sven Blumberg, and Jürgen Laartz | McKinsey & Company | October 2012
Gartner Survey: 70% of Digital Transformations Fail Due to Lack of User Adoption and Resistance to Change | Gartner | February 2023
Pulse of the Profession 2021: Beyond Agility | Project Management Institute (PMI) | PMI | 2021
